Prof. Huaiping Zhu 

York University, Canada

Speech Title: Modeling the dynamics of Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic

Biography 

Prof. Huaiping Zhu, York Research Chair in Applied Mathematics of York University. He is the Director of the Canadian Centre for Diseases Modeling (CCDM) and Director of the Canadian NSERC-PHAC One Health Modeling Network for Emerging Infections (OMNI) at York University. His research interests include dynamical systems and Hilbert's 16th problem, bifurcation theory and applications; mathematical ecology and epidemiology; climate change modeling and impact studies. He develops mathematical models, theories, methodologies, and tools for prevention and control of infectious diseases for public health.

Abstract

Since the first outbreak of COVID-19, China has successfully controlled the spread of the virus in over 30 cities. Countries that aimed for elimination with strict lockdown and test-trace-isolation policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. In this talk, I will present a few dynamical models incorporating citywide testing-trace-isolation (CTTI) Zero-COVID policy to assess how it contributes to the elimination of infections. Using the model and data, I will explain how the CTTI policy helped controlled the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Fujian province. In the end, I will then present the scenarios if the implementation of aggressive CTTI is not possible, and discuss the exit strategy of the COVID-19 pandemic.